This is a translated article from the popular Russian political and economic expert Mikhail Khazin. It was originally published on 14.01.2017 on Khazin’s website.
The Chinese Society Has Split Into Two Camps
A few days ago, Bloomberg reported that from China to London went the first freight train, and it was on the Trans-Siberian Railway. This news was hardly picked up by Russian media. If we look at news feeds, we can see that they talk to us a lot about the cold weather, about the floods in Thailand, about the terrorist attack in Israel, while ignoring an important economic event.
I flew in from China a few days ago, and while I was there I saw a picture that I had expected to see. The Chinese society has split into two camps. The Representatives of the first camp are convinced that the friendship with the United States within the framework of liberal values and, therefore, China’s exports to America, will go on forever, the representatives of the other which are closer to Xi Jinping understand that this will end quite soon. In Russia, for the economic policy is responsible the same group that is close to the Chinese liberals and members of the Komsomol. This group has made great efforts to offset the processes that are currently taking place in the world economy and politics. They (the processes) have already led to Brexit in the UK, to Donald Trump’s win in the US, and in the near future they will lead to the victory of Marine Le Pen in France and the defeat of Angela Merkel in Germany.
The concept of “Maritime Silk Road” is well within the framework of the liberal transport model, but the problem is that the Baltic Dry – the main economic index showing the scale of the maritime trade, is at historic lows. It is clear that Trump, who has already announced the toughening of relations with China, will have serious grounds to block the sea routes in those areas that are controlled by the United States. I think the same will be done also by Egypt which controls the Suez Canal. The idea of “Marine Silk Road,” which the team of liberal Chinese Komsomol promotes, passes to the south of Russia. It practically overpasses us.
In this sense, the first train that passed from China to London by the Russian Trans-Siberian Railway, is extremely revealing event: It shows that there have already appeared and starting to show up the alternative economic and political processes. Yes, of course, the Russian government will oppose them, but I hope that these tendencies in Russia will gradually increase.
Original article source: khazin.ru